diff --git a/PdkFriendServer/Logic/CardTracker.cs b/PdkFriendServer/Logic/CardTracker.cs
index dbca7c6e..4948fd79 100644
--- a/PdkFriendServer/Logic/CardTracker.cs
+++ b/PdkFriendServer/Logic/CardTracker.cs
@@ -242,6 +242,63 @@ namespace PdkFriendServer.Logic
             return false;
         }
 
+        /// <summary>
+        /// 确定性手牌强度：基于绝对牌计数评估手牌实力，0.0-1.0。
+        /// 核心思想：我的手牌 + 已见牌 = 对手的牌池完全确定，
+        ///         可以精确计算哪些 rank 已被我控制、哪些出牌无敌。
+        ///         用于修正 ISMCTS 模拟噪声。
+        /// </summary>
+        public double AbsoluteHandStrength(TCardInfoPdkF[] myHand)
+        {
+            if (myHand.Length == 0) return 1.0;
+
+            double score = 0.0;
+
+            // 1. Rank 绝对控制率：我持有该 rank 所有剩余牌的百分比
+            int controlledRanks = 0;
+            int[] ranks = { 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 16 };
+            foreach (int r in ranks)
+            {
+                int remaining = RemainingCount(r, myHand);
+                int myCount = myHand.Count(c => c.GameState == 1 && c.GameNum == r);
+                if (remaining == 0 && myCount > 0)
+                {
+                    // 我持有该 rank 所有剩余牌 → 绝对控制
+                    controlledRanks++;
+                    if (myCount >= 3) controlledRanks++; // 三张以上价值更高
+                }
+            }
+            score += controlledRanks * 0.04; // 每个控制 rank +4%
+
+            // 2. 绝对最高牌：持有 ♠2 或所有2
+            int myTwos = myHand.Count(c => c.GameState == 1 && c.GameNum == 16);
+            int remainingTwos = RemainingCount(16, myHand);
+            if (remainingTwos == 0 && myTwos > 0)
+            {
+                score += myTwos * 0.06; // 每张独占 2 +6%
+            }
+
+            // 3. 持有的炸弹数
+            var byRank = myHand.Where(c => c.GameState == 1)
+                .GroupBy(c => c.GameNum)
+                .Where(g => g.Count() >= 4);
+            int myBombs = byRank.Count();
+            score += myBombs * 0.08; // 每个炸弹 +8%
+
+            // 4. 手牌效率（通过 HandOptimizer 间接）
+            int minPlays = HandOptimizer.MinPlays(myHand);
+            int handSize = myHand.Count(c => c.GameState == 1);
+            double efficiency = (double)(handSize - minPlays)
+                / Math.Max(handSize, 1);
+            score += efficiency * 0.15; // 效率贡献最多 15%
+
+            // 5. 已知牌越多 → 确定性权重越高
+            double seenRatio = _seenCardIds.Count / (double)Math.Max(48 - handSize, 1);
+            score += seenRatio * 0.10; // 已知牌占比 +10%
+
+            return Math.Min(score, 1.0);
+        }
+
         /// <summary>在外面可能存在的炸弹数（按 rank 计）</summary>
         public int BombsOutside(TCardInfoPdkF[] myHand)
         {
diff --git a/PdkFriendServer/Logic/IsmctsBot.cs b/PdkFriendServer/Logic/IsmctsBot.cs
index cfb294bd..7042bc5c 100644
--- a/PdkFriendServer/Logic/IsmctsBot.cs
+++ b/PdkFriendServer/Logic/IsmctsBot.cs
@@ -68,6 +68,11 @@ namespace PdkFriendServer.Logic
 
         private double EstimateWinProbability(PdkBotView view)
         {
+            // 确定性安全检查：手牌极弱 → 直接否定包庄
+            double detStrength = _tracker.AbsoluteHandStrength(view.MyHand);
+            if (detStrength < 0.15) return 0.0;
+
+            // ISMCTS 模拟（确定性只做否决，不混入加成以避免虚假信心）
             int sims = Math.Min(_simulations, 600);
             int wins = 0;
             for (int s = 0; s < sims; s++)
diff --git a/exe/PdkFriendServer/PdkFriendServer.dll b/exe/PdkFriendServer/PdkFriendServer.dll
index cc3e6ec3..de535739 100644
Binary files a/exe/PdkFriendServer/PdkFriendServer.dll and b/exe/PdkFriendServer/PdkFriendServer.dll differ
diff --git a/exe/PdkFriendServer/PdkFriendServer.pdb b/exe/PdkFriendServer/PdkFriendServer.pdb
index 1daf6035..06491c6c 100644
Binary files a/exe/PdkFriendServer/PdkFriendServer.pdb and b/exe/PdkFriendServer/PdkFriendServer.pdb differ
diff --git a/exe/hjha-console/PdkFriendServer.dll b/exe/hjha-console/PdkFriendServer.dll
index cc3e6ec3..de535739 100644
Binary files a/exe/hjha-console/PdkFriendServer.dll and b/exe/hjha-console/PdkFriendServer.dll differ
diff --git a/exe/hjha-console/PdkFriendServer.pdb b/exe/hjha-console/PdkFriendServer.pdb
index 1daf6035..06491c6c 100644
Binary files a/exe/hjha-console/PdkFriendServer.pdb and b/exe/hjha-console/PdkFriendServer.pdb differ
diff --git a/exe/hjha-console/hjha-console.dll b/exe/hjha-console/hjha-console.dll
index 8b9b480c..b38bea20 100644
Binary files a/exe/hjha-console/hjha-console.dll and b/exe/hjha-console/hjha-console.dll differ
diff --git a/exe/hjha-console/hjha-console.pdb b/exe/hjha-console/hjha-console.pdb
index ce88349c..85b2e1b6 100644
Binary files a/exe/hjha-console/hjha-console.pdb and b/exe/hjha-console/hjha-console.pdb differ