fix: ISMCTS包庄决策——600次模拟估算P(win), 阈值45%

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替换占位逻辑(大牌≥6张)为真正的蒙特卡洛评估:
- EstimateWinProbability(): 模拟N局完整对局, 统计我第一个出完的概率
- 阈值45%: 包庄收益翻倍, 略微倾斜于有利局势
- 日志: [ISMCTS posX] 包庄评估: P(win)=XX% → 包庄/不包

原理: 包庄不改变牌局流程(不像斗地主叫地主), 只翻倍输赢。
因此决策简化为 P(win|我的手牌) ≥ 阈值 → 包庄。

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xiaoou

2026-07-07 13:29:36 +08:00

parent a75733e4ae

commit d23e0b7616

9 changed files with 163 additions and 80 deletions

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