fix: 预测加权按牌型区分压制条件 — 修复SanDai2误杀

根因: oppMaxRank仅代表「对手有单牌」，但用单牌概率惩罚对子/三带二
→ 三带二需要对手有3张同rank才能压制，不是1张

修复: 按牌型分别判断
- DanZhang: 用 MaxRank (单牌条件)
- DuiZi: 用 LikelyPairs (对手是否有更高对子)
- SanZhang/SanDai2: 用 LikelyTriples (对手是否有更高三张)
- ShunZi: 用 MaxStraightLength + MaxRank
- 其他: 默认 MaxRank

效果: SanDai2 52→75/30局 (+44%), 多牌比例 25.4%→26.1%

验证: 100局0错误 0.8s/局

PdkFriendServer/Logic/IsmctsBot.cs

@@ -278,10 +278,9 @@ namespace PdkFriendServer.Logic
                     }
                 }
 
-                // 5.7. 对手牌型预测加权：基于剩余牌计数推断对手能压制我的概率
+                // 5.7. 对手牌型预测加权：按牌型区分压制条件
                 var opp1Pred = _tracker.PredictOpponent(view.MyPos % 3, hand, view);
                 var opp2Pred = _tracker.PredictOpponent((view.MyPos + 1) % 3, hand, view);
-                int oppMaxRank = Math.Max(opp1Pred.MaxRank, opp2Pred.MaxRank);
 
                 for (int i = 0; i < scoredCandidates.Count; i++)
                 {
@@ -291,22 +290,60 @@ namespace PdkFriendServer.Logic
 
                     int myRank = p.GameNum;
 
-                    // 我的出牌 rank 高于两对手最高牌 → 他们很可能压不了
-                    if (myRank > oppMaxRank && oppMaxRank > 0)
+                    // 按牌型判定：对手是否有能力压制
+                    bool oppLikelyCanBeat = false;
+                    bool oppLikelyCantBeat = false;
+
+                    switch (p.Type)
                     {
-                        wr += 0.08;
-                        if (opp1Pred.LikelyNoHigherThan(myRank) && opp2Pred.LikelyNoHigherThan(myRank))
-                            wr += 0.05; // 两个对手都可能压不了 → 更像无敌
-                    }
-                    // 我的出牌低于对手最高牌 → 容易被压制
-                    else if (myRank < oppMaxRank && oppMaxRank > 0)
-                    {
-                        wr -= 0.05;
+                        case CardType1.DanZhang:
+                            // 单张：对手有更高 rank 的单张就能压制
+                            oppLikelyCanBeat = opp1Pred.MaxRank > myRank || opp2Pred.MaxRank > myRank;
+                            oppLikelyCantBeat = opp1Pred.MaxRank > 0 && opp2Pred.MaxRank > 0
+                                && opp1Pred.MaxRank <= myRank && opp2Pred.MaxRank <= myRank;
+                            break;
+                        case CardType1.DuiZi:
+                            // 对子：对手需要有更高的对子（LikelyPairs ≥ 2张同rank）
+                            oppLikelyCanBeat = opp1Pred.LikelyPairs.Any(r => r > myRank)
+                                || opp2Pred.LikelyPairs.Any(r => r > myRank);
+                            oppLikelyCantBeat = opp1Pred.LikelyNoPairHigherThan(myRank)
+                                && opp2Pred.LikelyNoPairHigherThan(myRank)
+                                && opp1Pred.MaxRank > 0 && opp2Pred.MaxRank > 0;
+                            break;
+                        case CardType1.SanZhang:
+                        case CardType1.SanDai2:
+                            // 三张/三带二：对手需要有更高的三张（LikelyTriples ≥ 3张同rank）
+                            oppLikelyCanBeat = opp1Pred.LikelyTriples.Any(r => r > myRank)
+                                || opp2Pred.LikelyTriples.Any(r => r > myRank);
+                            oppLikelyCantBeat = opp1Pred.LikelyTriples.Count == 0
+                                && opp2Pred.LikelyTriples.Count == 0
+                                && opp1Pred.MaxRank > 0 && opp2Pred.MaxRank > 0;
+                            break;
+                        case CardType1.ShunZi:
+                            // 顺子：对手需要有更长的同长顺子
+                            int myLen = p.Ids.Length;
+                            oppLikelyCanBeat = (opp1Pred.MaxStraightLength >= myLen
+                                && opp1Pred.MaxRank > myRank)
+                                || (opp2Pred.MaxStraightLength >= myLen
+                                && opp2Pred.MaxRank > myRank);
+                            break;
+                        default:
+                            // 连对/飞机/炸弹：用 rank 近似
+                            oppLikelyCanBeat = opp1Pred.MaxRank > myRank || opp2Pred.MaxRank > myRank;
+                            oppLikelyCantBeat = opp1Pred.MaxRank > 0 && opp2Pred.MaxRank > 0
+                                && opp1Pred.MaxRank <= myRank && opp2Pred.MaxRank <= myRank;
+                            break;
                     }
 
+                    if (oppLikelyCantBeat)
+                        wr += 0.10; // 两个对手都可能压不了 → 近似无敌
+                    else if (oppLikelyCanBeat)
+                        wr -= 0.04; // 对手大概率能压制 → 轻微惩罚
+
                     // 对手可能有炸弹 → 大牌型谨慎
                     double maxBombProb = Math.Max(opp1Pred.BombProbability, opp2Pred.BombProbability);
-                    if (maxBombProb > 0.3 && (p.Type == CardType1.ZhaDan || p.Type == CardType1.ShunZi))
+                    if (maxBombProb > 0.3 && (p.Type == CardType1.ZhaDan || p.Type == CardType1.ShunZi
+                        || p.Type == CardType1.SanDai2 || p.Type == CardType1.LianDui))
                         wr -= 0.03;
 
                     scoredCandidates[i] = (p, wr, am, m);